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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.